CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD PANEL DATA IN ETHIOPIA, MALAWI, NIGERIA, AND TANZANIA
Keywords:
Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, Food Security, Climate Resilience, Sub-Saharan Africa.Abstract
Climate change is increasingly undermining agricultural production and household food security in Africa, yet evidence on how these effects are transmitted remains limited. This study examined the relationship between climate shocks, agricultural productivity, and household food security using a harmonized panel of 8,450 household-year observations from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania covering 2010/11–2018/19. The panel data were pooled and weighted using the survey sampling weights provided in the LSMS-ISA datasets to ensure national representativeness for each country. Household survey data were matched with growing-season temperature and rainfall measures from ERA5 and CHIRPS, respectively. Panel fixed-effects and Probit models were used to estimate the effects of climate shocks on food consumption, dietary diversity, and food insecurity, while mediation and interaction analyses examined the role of agricultural productivity and differences across vulnerable households. The results showed that a 1°C increase in temperature anomaly reduced the Food Consumption Score by 1.85 points and increased the probability of food insecurity by 14.5 percentage points, while favourable rainfall conditions improved food security. Crop productivity partly explained these effects, accounting for about 23.2% of the temperature effect on food consumption. Temperature shocks were also more damaging for female-headed, low-wealth, and credit-constrained households. The findings underscore the importance of strengthening climate-resilient agricultural production, expanding access to agricultural finance, and improving targeted social protection and rural infrastructure to protect vulnerable households from climate-related food insecurity.
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