ELECTION VIOLENCE AND VOTER TURNOUT IN NIGERIA (1999-2023): EVIDENCE FROM THE 2023 GENERAL ELECTION
Keywords:
Electoral violence, voter turnout, democratic consolidation, political participation, electoral security, Nigeria, 2023 general elections, Frustration–Aggression TheoryAbstract
This study examined the impact of electoral violence on voter turnout in Nigeria, with particular focus on the 2023 general elections. The study was motivated by the persistent occurrence of election-related violence, political intimidation, insecurity, and the steady decline in voter participation across Nigeria’s Fourth Republic (1999–2023). The objectives were to identify the major causes of electoral violence, assess its effect on voter turnout, and explain its implications for democratic consolidation and electoral credibility in Nigeria. The study adopted a descriptive research design and relied exclusively on secondary sources, including academic journals, electoral reports, official publications from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), observer mission reports (EU, NDI/IRI), and materials from human rights organizations. The Frustration–Aggression Theory (Dollard et al., 1939; Berkowitz, 1962) served as the theoretical framework. Findings revealed that voter turnout declined from 69.08% in 2003 to 29% in 2023, the lowest since 1999, despite increased voter registration. Electoral violence, which resulted in over 800 deaths in 2011 and 629 deaths in 2019, was driven by political intolerance, weak democratic institutions, electoral malpractice, economic hardship, and lack of confidence in the electoral system. The 2023 election recorded violence across 15 states, including Rivers, Lagos, and Kano, involving voter intimidation, attacks on polling units, ballot snatching, and digital electoral violence (misinformation, hate speech). The study established that violence, insecurity, and intimidation discouraged citizens from voting, particularly among women, elderly persons, and first-time voters. The study concluded that electoral violence remains a major threat to democratic participation, electoral credibility, and democratic consolidation in Nigeria. It recommended strengthening election security through intelligence-driven policing, full implementation of the Electoral Act 2022 (including BVAS and electronic result transmission), establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission, intensified voter education, and institutionalization of peace-building initiatives before, during, and after elections.
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