HYBRID ENERGY SYSTEMS FOR NET-ZERO TRANSITIONS IN EMERGING OIL-PRODUCING ECONOMIES: TECHNO-ECONOMIC MODELLING AND SYSTEMS OPTIMIZATION
Keywords:
Hybrid Systems, Techno-Economic Modelling, Systems Optimization, Net-Zero Transitions, Emerging Oil EconomiesAbstract
New oil producing economies face pressure to align their hydro carbon reliant structures with net-zero. This study presents an integrated techno-economic and systems-optimization framework for assessing hybrid energy configurations that can lessen operational emissions in oil production sites. The objective is to determine the best mix of solar PV, wind, geothermal, battery storage and gas based backup systems that simultaneously minimises lifecycle emissions and cost. Drawing on a multi-scenario primary and secondary data, the study adopts a three-stage analytical design, which includes (i) the harmonization of data on energy demand, resource profiles, fuel use and historical emissions, (ii) the simulation of hybrid energy pathways using HOMER-Pro for cost–performance optimization, and (iii) multi-objective optimization modelling based on a modified TIMES–linear programming framework to minimize levelized cost of energy (LCOE), maximize emissions abatement and ensure operational reliability. The important findings show that Hybrid Optimized Systems (OHS) lead to 38-52% less operational emissions upstream. Save 41% of fuel while achieving a 22% LCOE reduction over fossil-only baselines. Solar-wind-battery-gas hybrids consistently outperform alternatives across sensitivity conditions for six system configurations. As per the results, geothermal co-generation boosts reliability margins by 12% and lowers thermal EOR steam-generation cost by 18% The research found that hybrid systems can reduce emissions and costs to a quantifiable degree and path to net-zero alignment has been established as technically feasible. We recommend that policymakers use fiscal incentives, carbon-pricing mechanisms, hybrid-infrastructure standards, and investment de-risking frameworks. Researchers provide a modeling architecture to better optimize hybrid energy in developing nations.
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