MEDIA AGENDA SETTING AND PARTY DEFECTIONS IN NIGERIA: A STUDY OF VOTER PERCEPTIONS AND NEWSPAPER FRAMING IN LAGOS AND ABUJA (2015–2024)
Keywords:
Agenda Setting, Democratic Consolidation, Media Framing, Nigeria, Party DefectionAbstract
This study investigates the relationship between media reportage and the perception of political stability within Nigeria’s Fourth Republic between 2015 and 2024. Utilising a triangulation of Agenda Setting and Spiral of Silence theories, the research examines how the volume and framing of party switching narratives influence the psychological climate of the electorate. The methodology employed a survey of 400 registered voters in Lagos and Abuja, determined through the Taro Yamane formula, alongside a content analysis of 1,080 newspaper editions from The Punch, The Vanguard, and The Nation. Findings reveal a strong positive correlation (r = 0.682, p< 0.05) between the volume of media reports and public perceptions of party instability. Content analysis indicated that 72 percent of stories utilised game changer frames, which correlated with a high mean perception score = 4.10) regarding party weakness. The study concludes that media narratives are significantly associated with a normalisation of instability in public perception and represent a critical psychological variable in the cognitive environment of Nigerian politics. These findings suggest that the communicative environment facilitates a perception of institutional fragility, regardless of the underlying ideological or economic drivers of political behaviour.
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