CONTRIBUTIONS OF ICT TO FLOOD DISASTER MITIGATION USING PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING ANALYSIS OF COMMUNITIES IN THE UPPER BENUE BASIN

Abstract

The strategic shift from reactive to proactive flood disaster management globally hinges on the effective use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for mitigation. However, empirical quantification of ICT’s impact on mitigation outcomes encompassing early warning, risk mapping, and public awareness in vulnerable, rural contexts is limited. This study investigates the specific relationship between ICT adoption and the perceived effectiveness of flood disaster mitigation efforts in communities along the River Benue, Nigeria. A cross-sectional survey design was employed, with data collected from 378 household heads across six flood-prone Local Government Areas in Adamawa and Taraba States. The research model, grounded in Diffusion of Innovation and Socio-Technical Systems theories, positioned ICT as an exogenous variable influencing the endogenous construct of Flood Disaster Mitigation. Analysis was conducted using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) with SmartPLS 4. The measurement model demonstrated robust reliability (composite reliability: 0.842-0.899) and validity (convergent and discriminant). The structural model results  failed to accept the null hypothesis (H01), revealing a positive, and statistically significant path coefficient (β = 0.459, t = 10.022, p = 0.000). ICT constructs explained 65% of the variance (R² = 0.65) in mitigation effectiveness, indicating moderatel explanatory power. Predictive relevance assessment (Q² > 0) confirmed the model’s validity. Because this study measured mitigation effectiveness through community perceptions rather than objective data on disaster reduction, the findings should be understood as statistical associations, not evidence of a direct cause-and-effect relationship with actual flood damage. Qualitative insights from key informant interviews contextualize the quantitative findings, highlighting the operational use of GIS, satellite data, and SMS alerts by agencies like NIHSA and NEMA, while also underscoring critical last-mile dissemination gaps. The study concludes that ICT is a potent enabler of mitigation, but its efficacy is inherently mediated by the socio-technical readiness of the community. It contributes a validated  measurement model to disaster risk reduction literature and advocates for integrated mitigation policies that synergize centralized technological forecasting with decentralized, community-capacitated action.